Comparative Analysis of Road Crashes Between Developed and Developing Country—A Case Study of Poland and India
摘要
Globally, road accidents are considered the tenth leading cause of all deaths. According to the WHO, nearly 1.3 million people die, and 50 million people are injured due to accidents every year. Road crashes affect the road user and their family both mentally and financially. Road traffic injuries have a serious impact on national economies. In a developing country like India, around 1,50,000 people die every year in road crashes. Over the years, many steps have been undertaken to reduce road crashes and deaths caused due to them. However, number of deaths hasn’t reduced much. The best way to know about the efficiency of undertaken measures is to forecast the road crashes in a future time, considering the historical crash data. Further, a comparison of the forecast in Indian conditions with developed countries, can provide a better insight into the effectiveness of road safety measures. This is important because 93% of world fatalities on the roads occur in developing and under-developed countries. In our comparative analysis, we have considered the traffic data of Poland and India as developed and developing country, respectively. Through Microsoft Excel and SPSS Statistics, the number of registered vehicles and road accidents have been forecasted for the upcoming years, and the growth rate was calculated for both India and Poland. Regular log models and time series forecasting techniques have been utilised in the present study. From the present study, it is found that the decline in road accident growth rate is higher in Poland compared to India, whereas the registered vehicle growth rate is higher in India compared to Poland. The accuracy of accident data in India is questionable as most accidents are not registered. Further, the reduction in road crashes is attributed mostly to COVID pandemic whose effect might not last long.