Transitioning Sri Lanka’s Urban Transport: A System Dynamics Approach to Electrification and Decarbonization
摘要
The transport sector, dominated by road transport, is a major contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and climate change, both globally and locally. It accounts for 14%-24% of global GHG emissions. In Sri Lanka, the transport sector contributes approximately 50% of carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent emissions from fossil fuel use. Transitioning toward decarbonized mobility in Sri Lanka includes various challenges related to mobility, socioeconomic and environmental factors. A novel system dynamics (SD) approach that integrates cause-and-effect analysis and feedback loops is employed to address these complexities to develop effective policies targeting fuel economy and vehicular emissions. Three alternative vehicle growth trajectories up to 2050 are formulated based on the output from the SD model: minimal, moderate, and aggressive e-mobility strategies. This chapter outlines the pathways Sri Lanka should take to achieve its electric vehicle (EV) transition targets. By comparing these scenarios, the study identifies the most feasible and impactful strategies for reducing transport-related emissions tailored to Sri Lanka’s unique context. The findings underscore the importance of tailored policy interventions and strategic planning to overcome existing barriers and leverage opportunities for sustainable transport. This chapter provides actionable insights for policymakers, stakeholders, and researchers, aiming to support Sri Lanka’s transition toward a low-carbon transport future and contribute to broader global sustainability efforts.