Estimation of Trip Distribution with Bayesian Inference Method in Solo Agglomeration
摘要
Solo Agglomeration is an urban agglomeration of seven districts or cities, including Surakarta City, Boyolali Regency, Sukoharjo Regency, Karanganyar Regency, Wonogiri Regency, Sragen Regency and Klaten Regency, which is known as SUBOSUKAWONOSRATEN. In meeting their economic needs, the seven districts/cities support each other and are connected to one another. Solo Agglomeration is considered a strategic urban agglomeration; therefore, an Origin Destination Matrix (OD-Matrix) analysis is needed in this area. OD-Matrix analysis uses the Gravity model and the Emme 4 program. The User’s Equilibrium method is used to impose a matrix on the road network. The aim of this research is to obtain the β parameter value, data validity value (R2) and movement distribution patterns. In this research, Solo Agglomeration was modeled into 19 zones. The division of zones is based on the disaggregation of district/city areas which consist of 13 internal zones and 6 external zones. The research results showed that the β parameter value was 0.080 the R2 value amounted to 0.818 with a total estimated distribution of movement for Solo Agglomeration in 2023 of 34,428 pcu/h. The largest movement distribution occurred in internal-internal movement, namely 63.22%, and the smallest movement distribution was external-external movement, namely 3.96%.