The intrinsic value of metals provides a stable hedge against inflation; however, various macroeconomic factors, such as inflation, interest rates, and money supply, can have a profound impact on metal prices. This paper proposes a deep learning model to predict the prices of non-ferrous and precious metals, given their importance as components in investment portfolios. Positional encoding was applied to encode the daily insights of the sparse macroeconomic data, and a dynamic correlation encoder was used to model asset relationships without predefined information. In experiments, the proposed framework outperformed state-of-the-art methods in terms of Mean Absolute Error (MAE).

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Metal Price Prediction by Encoding Daily Insights of Sparse Macroeconomic Factors and Integrating Dynamic Asset Correlations

  • Tzu-En Wu,
  • Shiou-Chi Li,
  • Jen-Wei Huang

摘要

The intrinsic value of metals provides a stable hedge against inflation; however, various macroeconomic factors, such as inflation, interest rates, and money supply, can have a profound impact on metal prices. This paper proposes a deep learning model to predict the prices of non-ferrous and precious metals, given their importance as components in investment portfolios. Positional encoding was applied to encode the daily insights of the sparse macroeconomic data, and a dynamic correlation encoder was used to model asset relationships without predefined information. In experiments, the proposed framework outperformed state-of-the-art methods in terms of Mean Absolute Error (MAE).