In order to ensure navigation safety and reduce navigation accidents, this article uses statistical analysis and probability risk models to study the characteristics of ship traffic flow, water traffic accident characteristics, and accident probability in the Huangshi section of the Yangtze River, providing targeted measures and suggestions to prevent ship accident risks for water navigation safety. Based on accident data of accidents, the characteristics of accidents and correlation between accident and ship traffic flow are analysed using mathematical statistics and regression analysis model. Risk level of accidents in Huangshi reach of the Yangtze River is quantified using the probability risk model. Correlation between probability risk and ship traffic flow is analysed using regression analysis. Research results clearly reflect the temporal-spatial characteristics of traffic flow and traffic accidents, and the accident probability risk of Huangshi reach. This study enrich research contents in the area of water traffic safety, is of great significance for systematically and comprehensively understanding ship accident risks in Huangshi reach of the Yangtze River, and for providing a basis for future research.