On the Analysis of a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Nilofar Over the Arabian Sea: A Numerical Weather Prediction Model Study
摘要
Through numerical simulation, an attempt is made to study the dynamics and spatial characteristics involved during the very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS) Nilofar over the Arabian Sea (ARB). For this purpose, numerical experiments are carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with two-way nested domains at 27 km (outer) and 9 km (inner) horizontal resolution. The NCEP-NCAR Final analyses (FNL) data at 1° × 1° grid resolution is used in the WRF as initial and boundary conditions. The parameters simulated by the model, specifically mean sea level pressure (MSLP), 10 m surface wind and rainfall, are found close to the available India Meteorological Department (IMD) and other observations. In this study, we have also tried to determine what atmospheric and oceanic conditions compelled this very severe cyclonic storm to dissipate before making landfall. The study found that distraction of latent heat circulation in the lower troposphere due to negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly, increasing winds shear, atmospheric stability and decreasing water–vapour mixing ratio mainly in the middle and upper troposphere were the factors responsible for tropical cyclone (TC) Nilofar’s dissipation before the landfall. Overall, the present case study shows that the model has performed reasonably well over the ARB and addressed the dynamics and characteristics of the VSCS Nilofar to a great extent.