The Impact of COVID-19 on Unemployment Rate Forecasting: A Case of California
摘要
In the past few years, the COVID-19 pandemic has had a negative influence on the economic market around the world. The recession caused by COVID-19 triggered the unemployment shock on the labor market. Until today, most countries in the world overcame this hardship, and their labor markets adjusted to the standard level. However, the existence of the pandemic still changed the original market environment, which can have an impact on the current employment rate. Thus, in this research, it will be discussed whether the COVID-19 pandemic influences the future forecasting of the unemployment rate by collecting two different intervals of datasets that exclude and include the unemployment rate during pandemic time. Then, apply them to an approximate model to get the prediction result within 10 years by Rstudio, which can lead to better comparison and discussion when analyzing the raised question. Moreover, this research takes data from California, which can be seen as a microcosm of the U.S. labor market through its conditions.