This paper employs the Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) model to analyze and identify bubble behavior in the stock price and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio sequences of NVIDIA Corporation. While there is a wealth of precedent in utilizing the GSADF method for asset price analysis, there is a noticeable lack of systematic research addressing the asset price volatility induced by the AI boom over the past two years, particularly with respect to NVIDIA’s striking market performance. The findings of this study indicate that between February and March 2024, NVIDIA’s stock price exhibited behavior significantly deviating from fundamental market valuations, coupled with a marked periodic decline in its P/E ratio sequence. These bubble dynamics were partly driven by a confluence of market demand and investor sentiment. Further analysis proposed by this research suggests that, although the model clearly identified a bubble phase, when combining these findings with practical economic scenarios and considering NVIDIA’s anticipated growth, the relative value of its stock price, the influence of monetary policy, and the IPO market environment, NVIDIA’s stock performance can be deemed economically rational. This reflects the market’s strong recognition of its technological capabilities and future growth potential. In summary, this research posits that although NVIDIA’s stock performance in 2024 demonstrated bubble-like behavior, such manifestations did not stem from fictitious market exuberance but rather from the global economy entering a novel historical phase driven by AI transformation. The study anticipates that with the ongoing propulsion by AI technology, NVIDIA will continue to maintain a robust market performance.

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Bubbles Detection of Asset Price Based on GSADF Method: A Case Study of NVIDIA

  • Chuanpu Cao

摘要

This paper employs the Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) model to analyze and identify bubble behavior in the stock price and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio sequences of NVIDIA Corporation. While there is a wealth of precedent in utilizing the GSADF method for asset price analysis, there is a noticeable lack of systematic research addressing the asset price volatility induced by the AI boom over the past two years, particularly with respect to NVIDIA’s striking market performance. The findings of this study indicate that between February and March 2024, NVIDIA’s stock price exhibited behavior significantly deviating from fundamental market valuations, coupled with a marked periodic decline in its P/E ratio sequence. These bubble dynamics were partly driven by a confluence of market demand and investor sentiment. Further analysis proposed by this research suggests that, although the model clearly identified a bubble phase, when combining these findings with practical economic scenarios and considering NVIDIA’s anticipated growth, the relative value of its stock price, the influence of monetary policy, and the IPO market environment, NVIDIA’s stock performance can be deemed economically rational. This reflects the market’s strong recognition of its technological capabilities and future growth potential. In summary, this research posits that although NVIDIA’s stock performance in 2024 demonstrated bubble-like behavior, such manifestations did not stem from fictitious market exuberance but rather from the global economy entering a novel historical phase driven by AI transformation. The study anticipates that with the ongoing propulsion by AI technology, NVIDIA will continue to maintain a robust market performance.