In response to the increasing global environmental problems and energy crises, the global automotive industry sees the development and development of new energy vehicle technology as a crucial development direction. As a strategic industry in China, new energy vehicles have gained a broad market. To explore which method is more suitable for predicting sales of new energy vehicles in the Chinese market, this paper uses the time series model, The ETS model, the Holt-winters model and the SARIMA model are constructed, using data from January 2019 to December 2023, to predict the sales of new energy vehicles in China in the coming year. This paper first introduces the current status of sales for new energy cars in the Chinese market, then introduces time series models of ETS, Holt-winters and SARIMA. Thirdly, the three models are used to combine the timescale data and predict sales for the next year respectively. Finally, this paper will compare the predictive effects of three models, and it turns out that the SARIMA model predicts better results in Chinese new energy vehicle sales.

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Forecasting Sales of New Energy Vehicles: A Comparative Analysis Based ETS-Holt-Winters-SARIMA Model

  • Moyan Feng

摘要

In response to the increasing global environmental problems and energy crises, the global automotive industry sees the development and development of new energy vehicle technology as a crucial development direction. As a strategic industry in China, new energy vehicles have gained a broad market. To explore which method is more suitable for predicting sales of new energy vehicles in the Chinese market, this paper uses the time series model, The ETS model, the Holt-winters model and the SARIMA model are constructed, using data from January 2019 to December 2023, to predict the sales of new energy vehicles in China in the coming year. This paper first introduces the current status of sales for new energy cars in the Chinese market, then introduces time series models of ETS, Holt-winters and SARIMA. Thirdly, the three models are used to combine the timescale data and predict sales for the next year respectively. Finally, this paper will compare the predictive effects of three models, and it turns out that the SARIMA model predicts better results in Chinese new energy vehicle sales.