This paper investigates the link between China’s interest rates and stock market returns using the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate as an indicator of the policy rate and the Shanghai Stock Exchange as a measure of share performance. The analysis covers the period from January 2014 to December 2023. The results are that the short-term effects of the interest rate fluctuations on the market returns on stocks are considerable but insignificant. In contrast, the long-term downward influence on stock market returns cannot be overstated. On the other hand, values of the SSE Composite Index in previous instances are also powerful predictors of its current position, meaning that the performance data from the last month significantly influences the next month’s trend. The decision-makers are suggested to keep their sight on the role that such statements can have in the stability of financial markets, mainly regarding the economic situation of China, where the interest rate fluctuations affect the market’s activity considerably. People’s Bank of China must make clear its monetary policy preferences and keep communications voluntary to ensure predictability and reduce the adverse effects of uncertainty. The finding of this research provides ground for the macro segment regulators to understand and incorporate the inherent features of the Chinese financial markets to decipher the transmission of monetary policy and stock returns completely.

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The Relationship Between Changes in Interest Rates and Chinese Stock Market Returns

  • Xiaoju Dong

摘要

This paper investigates the link between China’s interest rates and stock market returns using the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate as an indicator of the policy rate and the Shanghai Stock Exchange as a measure of share performance. The analysis covers the period from January 2014 to December 2023. The results are that the short-term effects of the interest rate fluctuations on the market returns on stocks are considerable but insignificant. In contrast, the long-term downward influence on stock market returns cannot be overstated. On the other hand, values of the SSE Composite Index in previous instances are also powerful predictors of its current position, meaning that the performance data from the last month significantly influences the next month’s trend. The decision-makers are suggested to keep their sight on the role that such statements can have in the stability of financial markets, mainly regarding the economic situation of China, where the interest rate fluctuations affect the market’s activity considerably. People’s Bank of China must make clear its monetary policy preferences and keep communications voluntary to ensure predictability and reduce the adverse effects of uncertainty. The finding of this research provides ground for the macro segment regulators to understand and incorporate the inherent features of the Chinese financial markets to decipher the transmission of monetary policy and stock returns completely.