In an era characterized by heightened political turbulence, this study examines the impact of political risk on stock market volatility. I utilize the U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) Index as a proxy for political risk and the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) to measure market consequences. Using monthly data from January 1990 to May 2023, the study uncovers a consistently positive relationship between EPU and VIX, predominantly showing a lead-lag dynamic with EPU at the forefront. Notably, the application of a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model shows that shocks in EPU explain approximately 24% of the fluctuations in stock market volatility across the observed period. This influence is markedly accentuated during the period from 2004 to 2007, with EPU contributing to nearly 47% of the variations in the VIX. Additionally, robustness tests indicate that alternative measures of political risk do not confound the effects of EPU, validating its reliability as a proxy for political uncertainty. Overall, the results underscore the fundamental role of political risk in shaping market dynamics, offering critical insights for investors and policymakers.

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Quantifying the Impact of Political Risk on Financial Markets

  • Zhengqing Liu

摘要

In an era characterized by heightened political turbulence, this study examines the impact of political risk on stock market volatility. I utilize the U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) Index as a proxy for political risk and the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) to measure market consequences. Using monthly data from January 1990 to May 2023, the study uncovers a consistently positive relationship between EPU and VIX, predominantly showing a lead-lag dynamic with EPU at the forefront. Notably, the application of a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model shows that shocks in EPU explain approximately 24% of the fluctuations in stock market volatility across the observed period. This influence is markedly accentuated during the period from 2004 to 2007, with EPU contributing to nearly 47% of the variations in the VIX. Additionally, robustness tests indicate that alternative measures of political risk do not confound the effects of EPU, validating its reliability as a proxy for political uncertainty. Overall, the results underscore the fundamental role of political risk in shaping market dynamics, offering critical insights for investors and policymakers.