This chapter presents an overview of the estimated number of births and deaths from 2015 to 2045 in five-year intervals, based on the results of the 2018 Regional Projections as well as regional trends in natural and social increases. Although a monotonic decrease in the number of births is expected in almost all regions, the number of deaths is expected to change with various patterns across regions owing to differences in age structure by region. Although the positive or negative social increase rate is declining in each region owing to a decrease in the highly mobile young population, the natural decrease is increasing consistently in most regions and will be the primary factor driving population decline in future. Such population information is important for municipalities in formulating population-related policies. At the same time, this information is also indispensable for the entire country when considering the state of regional revitalization.

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Future Prospects for Natural and Social Increases by Region

  • Hachiro Nishioka,
  • Yuji Esaki,
  • Shiro Koike,
  • Masakazu Yamauchi

摘要

This chapter presents an overview of the estimated number of births and deaths from 2015 to 2045 in five-year intervals, based on the results of the 2018 Regional Projections as well as regional trends in natural and social increases. Although a monotonic decrease in the number of births is expected in almost all regions, the number of deaths is expected to change with various patterns across regions owing to differences in age structure by region. Although the positive or negative social increase rate is declining in each region owing to a decrease in the highly mobile young population, the natural decrease is increasing consistently in most regions and will be the primary factor driving population decline in future. Such population information is important for municipalities in formulating population-related policies. At the same time, this information is also indispensable for the entire country when considering the state of regional revitalization.