The Dongying Depression, located in the southeastern part of the Bohai Bay Basin, is characterized by a typical terrestrial shale oil reservoir. The production capacity of this reservoir post-fracturing and transformation is prone to instability due to various factors, including petrological, physical, and crude oil properties, alongside engineering mechanical properties. Consequently, the initial production capacity and water content of horizontal wells in different depressions exhibit significant variations, complicating large-scale development efforts. This study aims to elucidate the initial production characteristics of shale oil horizontal wells through comprehensive data analysis. In the Boxing Depression, the formation pressure is notably low, resulting in considerable variability in shale oil layer production across the plane. Notably, it demonstrates characteristics typical of early oil production, characterized by a low backflow rate and rapid initial water cut decrease. And the backflow rate in the western part of Boxing Depression is even lower, accompanied by a significant difference in pressure maintenance during the drainage process. Additionally, significant differences exist in the geological and development parameters of shale oil reservoirs. A comprehensive analysis, considering 25 influencing factors spanning geological, engineering, and production aspects, was conducted to assess the production capacity of horizontal wells. Utilizing theoretical analysis alongside data mining and machine learning methods, six main controlling factors for the initial production capacity of horizontal wells were identified, including fracture degree, lithology, fracturing fluid volume, length of fractured section, permeability, and number of fractured sections. These findings provide crucial data support for block production prediction and optimization of fracturing schemes.