Most oilfields in China have entered the “double high” development stage of high water cut and high recovery, and the water cut of some high permeability oilfields have reached more than 90%. However, the application of commonly used water drive theory will lead to inaccurate production predictions in the high water cut stage of oil fields. Therefore, it is urgent to propose a new water drive theory. Based on previous research, this paper proposes a new type of water drive formula, establishes the relationship between the oil–water relative permeability ratio and water saturation after oil fields enter high water cut stage, and uses this new water drive formula to accurately predict the actual production data of an oilfield in Eastern China by MATLAB. Compared with the curve fitted by conventional water drive formula, the new water drive curve has better fitting performance with the actual production data. And the curve can predict the oil production and the rising trend of water cut, which has a certain reference for the prediction of production and recovery factor of high water cut oilfield.