Currently, China's oil and gas resources are facing a situation of increasing demand and rising dependence on foreign countries, and shale oil has become the most realistic strategic replacement energy. China's shale oil reservoirs are mainly continental, with poor resource quality and great difficulty in utilization, and the beneficial development of shale oil faces many risks and challenges in terms of geological understanding, engineering technology and development strategy. Through in-depth research on the risk elements of the major domestic shale oil production areas in various business aspects of development and production, as well as the current status of development risk evaluation, it is found that the current development risk evaluation model of most of the shale oil blocks is no longer adapted to the current needs of rapid production construction. There are still five problems in the identification and evaluation of shale oil development risks: lack of effective evaluation indicators and methodology systems, the lack of timely risk identification and early warning, low utilization of multi-source and multi-scale data resources, low degree of synergistic and integrated risk evaluation among different operations and production segments, and lack of intelligent risk management tools. Risk evaluation of shale oil development with scale efficiency should be based on multi-disciplinary dynamic and static real-time data, with the goal of intelligent control of production operation and real-time early warning of development risk, and the establishment of a dynamic development risk evaluation model and system by combining the risk characteristics of shale oil development in different production and business segments in an intelligent way, so as to quickly and accurately predict the dynamic changes of shale reservoir development and promote lifecycle risk evaluation and management of shale oil development..

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Risk Analysis and Countermeasure Thoughts on Shale Oil Scale Effective Development

  • Jin Li,
  • Lin Yan,
  • Hui-qing Liu,
  • Hong-liang Wang,
  • Zhi-ping Wang,
  • Shao-jun Wang

摘要

Currently, China's oil and gas resources are facing a situation of increasing demand and rising dependence on foreign countries, and shale oil has become the most realistic strategic replacement energy. China's shale oil reservoirs are mainly continental, with poor resource quality and great difficulty in utilization, and the beneficial development of shale oil faces many risks and challenges in terms of geological understanding, engineering technology and development strategy. Through in-depth research on the risk elements of the major domestic shale oil production areas in various business aspects of development and production, as well as the current status of development risk evaluation, it is found that the current development risk evaluation model of most of the shale oil blocks is no longer adapted to the current needs of rapid production construction. There are still five problems in the identification and evaluation of shale oil development risks: lack of effective evaluation indicators and methodology systems, the lack of timely risk identification and early warning, low utilization of multi-source and multi-scale data resources, low degree of synergistic and integrated risk evaluation among different operations and production segments, and lack of intelligent risk management tools. Risk evaluation of shale oil development with scale efficiency should be based on multi-disciplinary dynamic and static real-time data, with the goal of intelligent control of production operation and real-time early warning of development risk, and the establishment of a dynamic development risk evaluation model and system by combining the risk characteristics of shale oil development in different production and business segments in an intelligent way, so as to quickly and accurately predict the dynamic changes of shale reservoir development and promote lifecycle risk evaluation and management of shale oil development..