Due to the complex pore structure and extreme heterogeneity of thin-layer carbonate reservoirs, water injection development in horizontal wells faces challenges such as complex water flooding patterns, low growth rates of water flooding utilization and poor effectiveness of water injection. The M oilfield in the Middle East is characterized by thin-layer carbonate reservoirs, and the rapid rise of water cut after water injection is influenced by thin layers and lateral heterogeneity. By analyzing the main controlling factors and patterns of water cut increase in horizontal wells of M oilfield, the water cut rise law in thin-layer carbonate reservoirs is studied, and targeted optimization water control technology policies are proposed. Based on geological data and production dynamic data, the main controlling factors affecting water cut rise in thin-layer carbonate reservoirs are determined to be reservoir thickness, reservoir heterogeneity, and degree of fracture development, while water injection timing and injection-production intensity are identified as the main development factors. The study shows that these factors can lead to rapid water rise or sudden water flooding in local oil wells, resulting in uneven water absorption profiles. Therefore, optimization well deployment, balanced injection-production in wells groups, targeted plugging in horizontal wells, and sidetracking are proposed as technical measures and implemented in the oilfield. Experimental results demonstrate that this technology effectively improves the oil stabilization and water control effect in the M oilfield, and can further enhance the development level of thin-layer carbonate reservoirs.