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Revisiting the earthquake catalogues, both instrumental and historical, around the central China North–South Seismic Belt, the predictability of the May 12, 2008, Wenchuan MS8.0/MW7.8 earthquake is investigated. This chapter discussed the predictability from the perspective of the ‘Dragon King’ theory. In terms of the century-scale earthquake catalogue, the Wenchuan earthquake cannot be regarded as a ‘Dragon King’ event; however, on the decade time scale, it may be regarded as a ‘Dragon King’ event. In the framework of ‘nowcasting earthquakes’, hazard of such a devastating earthquake can be described by the ‘earthquake potential score’ (EPS, up to 94%) and ‘potential magnitude’ (MP, up to 7.4) just prior to the occurrence of this event.

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Predictability of the May 12, 2008, Wenchuan Earthquake: Insights from the Perspective of ‘Dragon King’ Theory and ‘Nowcasting’ Method

  • 章节

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Yue Liu,
  • Jiawei Li,
  • Yongxian Zhang,
  • Zhongliang Wu

摘要

Revisiting the earthquake catalogues, both instrumental and historical, around the central China North–South Seismic Belt, the predictability of the May 12, 2008, Wenchuan MS8.0/MW7.8 earthquake is investigated. This chapter discussed the predictability from the perspective of the ‘Dragon King’ theory. In terms of the century-scale earthquake catalogue, the Wenchuan earthquake cannot be regarded as a ‘Dragon King’ event; however, on the decade time scale, it may be regarded as a ‘Dragon King’ event. In the framework of ‘nowcasting earthquakes’, hazard of such a devastating earthquake can be described by the ‘earthquake potential score’ (EPS, up to 94%) and ‘potential magnitude’ (MP, up to 7.4) just prior to the occurrence of this event.