Over the past four years, the mainland of China has experienced several significant earthquakes, including the Yutian, Xinjiang MS6.4 earthquake in 2020, the Maduo, Qinghai MS7.4 earthquake in 2021, the Luding, Sichuan MS6.8 earthquake in 2022, and the Linxia, Gansu MS6.2 earthquake in 2023, etc. These events prompted the China Earthquake Administration to launch a series of multidisciplinary scientific investigation projects aimed at understanding and mitigating the impacts of such disasters. One of the central efforts is the analysis of Operational Aftershock Forecasting models, which are crucial for enabling timely emergency responses and informed decision-making. This chapter systematically presents the research conducted using the 2021 Maduo MS7.4 earthquake and the 2022 Luding MS6.8 earthquake as case studies. The Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model was utilized to analyze the temporal decay of aftershock sequences and their potential to trigger further seismic activity. Short-term forecasts for the subsequent three days were generated, providing probabilities and occurrence rates for aftershocks of varying magnitudes. Additionally, the performance of the ETAS model was evaluated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) method and a consistency score test, comparing model forecasts against random guesses and actual observations. By providing reliable short-term forecasts and enhancing our understanding of aftershock dynamics, this research supports prompt and informed decision-making, ultimately aiding in mitigating the impacts of large earthquakes. The demonstrated effectiveness of the ETAS model underscores its value as a critical tool in earthquake science and disaster management.

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Operational Aftershock Forecasting Work for Scientific Investigation Activities of China Earthquake Administration in Recent Years

  • Shengfeng Zhang,
  • Yongxian Zhang

摘要

Over the past four years, the mainland of China has experienced several significant earthquakes, including the Yutian, Xinjiang MS6.4 earthquake in 2020, the Maduo, Qinghai MS7.4 earthquake in 2021, the Luding, Sichuan MS6.8 earthquake in 2022, and the Linxia, Gansu MS6.2 earthquake in 2023, etc. These events prompted the China Earthquake Administration to launch a series of multidisciplinary scientific investigation projects aimed at understanding and mitigating the impacts of such disasters. One of the central efforts is the analysis of Operational Aftershock Forecasting models, which are crucial for enabling timely emergency responses and informed decision-making. This chapter systematically presents the research conducted using the 2021 Maduo MS7.4 earthquake and the 2022 Luding MS6.8 earthquake as case studies. The Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model was utilized to analyze the temporal decay of aftershock sequences and their potential to trigger further seismic activity. Short-term forecasts for the subsequent three days were generated, providing probabilities and occurrence rates for aftershocks of varying magnitudes. Additionally, the performance of the ETAS model was evaluated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) method and a consistency score test, comparing model forecasts against random guesses and actual observations. By providing reliable short-term forecasts and enhancing our understanding of aftershock dynamics, this research supports prompt and informed decision-making, ultimately aiding in mitigating the impacts of large earthquakes. The demonstrated effectiveness of the ETAS model underscores its value as a critical tool in earthquake science and disaster management.