The series of normalization of diplomatic ties between Israel and Arab states—commonly known as the Abraham Accords—had seemingly created a favorable strategic environment in the Middle East to enable Washington’s gradual downsizing of its regional presence. The October 7 attack—code-named by Hamas as the “Al-Aqsa Flood”—and the Israel-Gaza War that followed underscores how these optimistic views of the future of the Middle East were, in hindsight, based on a fragile, if not illusionary, stability. This chapter examines the United States’ attempt to retrench from the Middle East as part of a grand strategic shift to focus on great power competition and domestic priorities since the Obama administration. It argues that this underlying policy in pursuit of creating a favorable regional order in the Middle East to enable U.S. withdrawal from the region played a major role in shaping the development of this fragile stability. The findings of this chapter offer implications not only for U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East but also for U.S. grand strategy, especially over prioritization and retrenchment, in an age of great power competition.

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The “10.7” Attack and U.S. Grand Strategy: Reassessing U.S. Retrenchment in the Middle East

  • Takuya Matsuda

摘要

The series of normalization of diplomatic ties between Israel and Arab states—commonly known as the Abraham Accords—had seemingly created a favorable strategic environment in the Middle East to enable Washington’s gradual downsizing of its regional presence. The October 7 attack—code-named by Hamas as the “Al-Aqsa Flood”—and the Israel-Gaza War that followed underscores how these optimistic views of the future of the Middle East were, in hindsight, based on a fragile, if not illusionary, stability. This chapter examines the United States’ attempt to retrench from the Middle East as part of a grand strategic shift to focus on great power competition and domestic priorities since the Obama administration. It argues that this underlying policy in pursuit of creating a favorable regional order in the Middle East to enable U.S. withdrawal from the region played a major role in shaping the development of this fragile stability. The findings of this chapter offer implications not only for U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East but also for U.S. grand strategy, especially over prioritization and retrenchment, in an age of great power competition.