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To evaluate the effects of climate change on large brown seaweed Undaria pinnatifida, sporophyte growth was projected in the Sanriku coastal area (SCA) and the Seto Inland Sea (SIS), the major Undaria cultivation areas in Japan. We developed a growth model specific to each SCA and SIS to reproduce the total length (TL) of Undaria sporophytes in each area. Using this growth model, we projected the growth of sporophytes applying the environmental conditions projected by climate models in RCP scenarios. Geographical variations in TL were projected to occur in the future. Under RCP8.5, a decrease of –50% in TL is projected south of 39° N in the SCA and a decrease of –40% in TL is projected in the western SIS, indicating a large-scale reduction in U. pinnatifida yield in the future. Duration of cultivation is projected to decrease in the SCA, suggesting that the cultivation schedule will change significantly. Simulations of climate change adaptation using a high-temperature-tolerant cultivar in the SIS revealed that yield losses could be mitigated.

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Impact on Brown Macroalga Undaria pinnatifida Farming Under Changing Ocean Climate

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  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Shigeho Kakehi,
  • Goh Onitsuka,
  • Hideaki Kidokoro

摘要

To evaluate the effects of climate change on large brown seaweed Undaria pinnatifida, sporophyte growth was projected in the Sanriku coastal area (SCA) and the Seto Inland Sea (SIS), the major Undaria cultivation areas in Japan. We developed a growth model specific to each SCA and SIS to reproduce the total length (TL) of Undaria sporophytes in each area. Using this growth model, we projected the growth of sporophytes applying the environmental conditions projected by climate models in RCP scenarios. Geographical variations in TL were projected to occur in the future. Under RCP8.5, a decrease of –50% in TL is projected south of 39° N in the SCA and a decrease of –40% in TL is projected in the western SIS, indicating a large-scale reduction in U. pinnatifida yield in the future. Duration of cultivation is projected to decrease in the SCA, suggesting that the cultivation schedule will change significantly. Simulations of climate change adaptation using a high-temperature-tolerant cultivar in the SIS revealed that yield losses could be mitigated.