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Forests perform numerous vital functions that are closely linked to human life. However, there are growing concerns that the worsening climate crisis may significantly diminish the role of forests in mitigating and adapting to climate change. In this chapter, using the Biome-BGC process model, we predict the impact of climate change on the growth of Japanese cedar plantations by estimating net primary production. We also assess the vulnerability of different genetic groups of Japanese cedar to climate change. Based on these assessments, we propose adaptation measures and provide guidelines for selecting the most appropriate genetic groups. Further, we present an adaptation strategy that accounts for growth predictions and mountain disaster risks by developing a method to evaluate suitable and unsuitable forestry areas at local fine scales based on Japanese cedar growth patterns and the frequency of disaster risks.

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Projection of Climate Change Impacts and Evaluation of Adaptation Options for Forestry

  • 章节

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Yasumasa Hirata,
  • Jumpei Toriyama,
  • Tokuko Ujino-Ihara,
  • Katsuhiro Nakao,
  • Wataru Murakami,
  • Haruka Tsunetaka,
  • Tomohiro Nishizono,
  • Shoji Hashimoto,
  • Kentaro Uchiyama,
  • Hideki Mori

摘要

Forests perform numerous vital functions that are closely linked to human life. However, there are growing concerns that the worsening climate crisis may significantly diminish the role of forests in mitigating and adapting to climate change. In this chapter, using the Biome-BGC process model, we predict the impact of climate change on the growth of Japanese cedar plantations by estimating net primary production. We also assess the vulnerability of different genetic groups of Japanese cedar to climate change. Based on these assessments, we propose adaptation measures and provide guidelines for selecting the most appropriate genetic groups. Further, we present an adaptation strategy that accounts for growth predictions and mountain disaster risks by developing a method to evaluate suitable and unsuitable forestry areas at local fine scales based on Japanese cedar growth patterns and the frequency of disaster risks.