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This chapter describes the impact of climate change on natural beaches and the inundation of mega-delta cities in Japan. First, the nationwide retreat of beaches is discussed based on the national beach geometry database under several SSP scenarios. Under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, it is projected that 30-60% of Japan’s major natural beaches could be lost by 2100. Second, the combined risks of sea-level rise and storm surges are shown to significantly increase inundation areas and affected populations, with impacts potentially tripling or more than the effects of sea-level rise alone. The number of residents affected by the combined influence of sea-level rise and storm surge is projected to peak around 2050 due to future population decline in Japan.

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Projection of Coastal Impacts: Beach Erosion and Inundation Risk of Urban Areas

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  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Nobuhito Mori,
  • Takuya Miyashita

摘要

This chapter describes the impact of climate change on natural beaches and the inundation of mega-delta cities in Japan. First, the nationwide retreat of beaches is discussed based on the national beach geometry database under several SSP scenarios. Under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, it is projected that 30-60% of Japan’s major natural beaches could be lost by 2100. Second, the combined risks of sea-level rise and storm surges are shown to significantly increase inundation areas and affected populations, with impacts potentially tripling or more than the effects of sea-level rise alone. The number of residents affected by the combined influence of sea-level rise and storm surge is projected to peak around 2050 due to future population decline in Japan.