To achieve rapid and precise optimization of technological parameters and accurate prediction of the stimulation effect of deflagration fracturing measures for horizontal wells, a mathematical model was established to assess the initial productivity and time-varying impact of these fracturing techniques. This model was based on the principle that the effect of deflagration fracturing is equivalent to an expansion of the wellbore radius, coupled with the observation that deflagration fracturing, the productivity of horizontal wells gradually tapers off, ultimately returning to its levels before measures. The validity of this mathematical model was tested through case studies of deflagration fracturing in two distinct well areas. The average calculated accuracy across these cases was 94.67%, indicating a high degree of precision and reliability in the model’s predictions. Using this validated model, optimal technological parameters were determined for a specific example well area. These parameters include a fracture length of 6 m, a fracture height of 150 m, and a fracture number of 6. Based on these parameters, it is predicted that the horizontal well in this area will have an initial productivity of 29.92 m3/d, with an initial productivity ratio of 1.49. These results suggest a favorable stimulation effect, indicating that the chosen fracturing measures are likely to yield significant improvements in well productivity. Overall, this mathematical model provides a robust framework for optimizing deflagration fracturing measures in horizontal wells, enabling more precise predictions of stimulation effects and subsequent productivity improvements.