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The intensity of heavy rainfall that occurs in Gumitir on the border of the Jember-Banyuwangi traffic route often results in landslides and traffic jams. This study aims to determine the threshold value of critical rainfall intensity and antecedent rainfall that triggers landslides. This study uses an empirical approach to the critical rainfall threshold, Intensity-Duration (I-D). The rainfall data used lasted for 10 min for 43 days. The threshold was evaluated using the confusion matrix method, statistical index, and analysis of the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristics curve or Area Under Curve (AUC). The study's results obtained the threshold value I = 456.58D−0.357 with the minimum intensity of landslide trigger at 23 mm/h. The comparison threshold occupies the top position compared to other studies; tropical areas with high rainfall are the cause. Evaluation of the I-D threshold performance for the confusion matrix categories True Positive, False Negative, False Positive, and True Negative for 5, 0, 5, and 26 events, respectively. The statistical index obtained a sensitivity value of 100% and a specificity of 84%. The AUC analysis obtained a value of 0,996 for classification in the classification category of very good. Thus, thresholds can be applied to early warning systems.

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Determination of Rainfall Threshold Value as a Landslide Trigger with an Empirical Approach in Gumitir

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Saifurridzal,
  • Entin Hidayah,
  • Mokhammad Farid Ma’ruf,
  • Yusuf Fikri Mauladana

摘要

The intensity of heavy rainfall that occurs in Gumitir on the border of the Jember-Banyuwangi traffic route often results in landslides and traffic jams. This study aims to determine the threshold value of critical rainfall intensity and antecedent rainfall that triggers landslides. This study uses an empirical approach to the critical rainfall threshold, Intensity-Duration (I-D). The rainfall data used lasted for 10 min for 43 days. The threshold was evaluated using the confusion matrix method, statistical index, and analysis of the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristics curve or Area Under Curve (AUC). The study's results obtained the threshold value I = 456.58D−0.357 with the minimum intensity of landslide trigger at 23 mm/h. The comparison threshold occupies the top position compared to other studies; tropical areas with high rainfall are the cause. Evaluation of the I-D threshold performance for the confusion matrix categories True Positive, False Negative, False Positive, and True Negative for 5, 0, 5, and 26 events, respectively. The statistical index obtained a sensitivity value of 100% and a specificity of 84%. The AUC analysis obtained a value of 0,996 for classification in the classification category of very good. Thus, thresholds can be applied to early warning systems.