Transformer-Based Scenario Generation of Multi-segment Monotonic Increasing Bidding Curves of Power Plants
摘要
With the relaxation of electricity market regulation, power plants are permitted to engage in bidding. The bidding outcomes in the competitive market differ significantly from those in the previously regulated market. These differences in bidding outcomes will further impact power flow and system security. To provide a reference for practical electricity market operations, make market simulation more realistic, it is crucial to analyze and establish a model to simulate the bidding behavior of power generators. This paper applies Transformer networks to predict multi-segment bidding behaviors of power plants, we have improved the classic Transformer network by adopting a one encoder-two decoder format, considering six key factors influencing bidding behavior: unit ID, fuel type, capacity, location, system load, and load ratio. Additionally, monotonicity of the multi-segment bidding curves of power plants is taken into account, and monotonicity loss functions are introduced to achieve this goal. We apply this method to predict bidding behaviors in power plants in the Australian electricity market, validating the accuracy of the model.