System identification is crucial for modeling dynamical systems, especially with noisy measurements. Traditional methods like least-squares provide asymptotic confidence regions, which are inadequate for situations requiring non-asymptotic guarantees. This paper introduces a sample-based method to construct non-asymptotic confidence ellipsoids around instrumental variable estimates for linear regression models with endogenous regressor. Our approach ensures that the confidence regions include the true system parameters with a user-specified probability, independent of sample size, under the condition of a known noise distribution. Numerical experiments validate our method, demonstrating its effectiveness and robustness.

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Guaranteed Confidence Ellipsoids in Linear Regression Model with Endogenous Regressor

  • Li Zheng,
  • Xiaopuwen Wang,
  • Shuwen Liu

摘要

System identification is crucial for modeling dynamical systems, especially with noisy measurements. Traditional methods like least-squares provide asymptotic confidence regions, which are inadequate for situations requiring non-asymptotic guarantees. This paper introduces a sample-based method to construct non-asymptotic confidence ellipsoids around instrumental variable estimates for linear regression models with endogenous regressor. Our approach ensures that the confidence regions include the true system parameters with a user-specified probability, independent of sample size, under the condition of a known noise distribution. Numerical experiments validate our method, demonstrating its effectiveness and robustness.