Energy transition in resource-constrained regions faces particularly severe challenges. This paper focuses on regions characterized by coal scarcity, lack of oil, limited gas reserves, and constrained renewable energy endowments, constructing a simulation model for regional low-carbon energy transition pathways that considers incoming electricity from imported sources. It also proposes a comprehensive assessment indicator system encompassing multiple dimensions such as energy, emissions, and economy for the transition pathways. Taking a certain resource-constrained province in middle China as a case study, the paper designs representative low-carbon energy transition pathways for the province's unique resource characteristics, conducts simulation exercises and quantitative assessment of these pathways, and carries out sensitivity analyses on parameters like coal price, carbon quota baseline, imported electricity price, and utilization hours of new energy sources. The computational examples demonstrate that the simulation model and indicator system developed herein can provide substantial support for the quantitative assessment of low-carbon energy transition pathways in resource-constrained regions.