Seismic Hazard Analysis Based on Synthetic Ground Motion Generation for Sikkim, Northeast India
摘要
Seismic hazard analysis (SHA) is indispensable in regions prone to high seismic activity. This study focuses on conducting an SHA in a seismically highly active region, Sikkim, located in Northeast India. The region's susceptibility to seismic events necessitates a comprehensive SHA to perform risk assessments and fortify infrastructure against potential loading from future Earthquakes (EQs). Present approach mainly comprises utilization of past EQ data, fault characteristics, and synthetic ground motion modeling. The examination of historical EQ records provides essential insights into the seismic history of the region, aiding in identifying patterns, recurrence intervals, and the distribution of EQ magnitudes. The study addresses fault rupture characteristics, a critical aspect of understanding potential seismic sources in the region. Analyzing fault geometry and recurrence intervals enhances the accuracy of seismic hazard assessments. This seismic source-related information is used to generate synthetic ground motions for the study area. Ground motion modeling, a key component of SHA, simulates seismic waves' effects on the Earth's surface, considering EQ magnitude, source distance, and local geological conditions. The analysis incorporates topographical Vs30 values for site class classification to determine surface-level seismic hazard levels for specific return periods. Vs30 values represent shear-wave velocity in the top 30 m of the soil, playing a pivotal role in assessing site-specific amplification. Site response analysis, based on the determined site classes, is carried out which provides insights into potential ground shaking at the surface level for different locations within the region. The present work determines the surface level of seismic hazards for the entire Sikkim region. The results highlight a higher seismic hazard level in the southern part of Sikkim, emphasizing the geographical variation in seismic risks. This observation underscores the need for tailored mitigation strategies addressing specific vulnerabilities in different regions. The findings contribute valuable information for policymakers, engineers, and stakeholders involved in developing and retrofitting infrastructure in seismically vulnerable areas. The findings serve as a foundation for informed decision-making, enabling the implementation of effective mitigation measures to safeguard lives and infrastructure in Sikkim and similar seismically active regions.