Earthquakes have a considerable impact on both infrastructure and human life. Meghalaya plays a crucial economic role, driven by tourism, development, and regional globalization efforts that boost North-East India's growth. This study seeks to determine the likelihood of major earthquake events (3.5 ≤ Mw ≤ 8.5) in Meghalaya using Gumbel's method and a time- and magnitude-predictable model over 1, 50, and 100 years. An updated earthquake catalogue of events with Mw ≥ 3.5 from 1861 to 2022 is prepared, centred on Shillong (25.57° N, 91.88° E) within a 350 km radius. The probability of an earthquake with a magnitude of Mw ≥ 7.5 occurring again in 1, 50, and 100 years is estimated to be 2, 65, and 88%, respectively. For Mw ≥ 7.5, the return period is computed as 50 years. The most probable earthquake, magnitude 7.9, is expected in the next 100 years. A modified relationship developed for the Himalayan region is used to estimate the return period using a predictable model in terms of time and magnitude. For Mw ≥ 7.5, the return period is 125.6 years per time- and magnitude-predictable model. Gumbel's approach predicted a longer return period for Mw > 7.5 but a shorter return period for Mw < 7.5 compared to the time- and magnitude-predictable model. When comparing Gumbel's method to time- and magnitude-predictable models for 50 and 100-year return periods, Mw ≥ 7.5 is predicted to have a higher probability of occurrence. Gumbel's approach offers a statistical method for estimating major seismic event return periods for long-term risk and engineering design, while the time- and magnitude-predictable model provides precise predictions for better preparedness and response strategies. The results of this study will significantly aid in assessing and mitigating seismic risk, resulting in a more secure and resilient environment in this area.