Factor Analysis of Weather Conditions Impact on Firefighter Interventions

This research builds upon a series of studies investigating various categories of variables and their implications for firefighting. It is motivated by the recognition that, while weather conditions impact the environment and health, they are a critical factor in firefighting interventions. Firefighters respond primarily to emergencies, prompting an examination of how the weather might influence their operations. Our study aims to thoroughly evaluate the impact of weather conditions on firefighting interventions, with a particular focus on their frequency. The importance of this study is highlighted by the significant effects of flood and accident risks. In France, extreme temperatures have been shown to increase mortality rates. Climate change has caused a rise in the frequency of extreme heat days, doubling the associated mortality, as noted in a 2022 public health survey. This underscores the urgency of our research. Spanning nine years from 2015 to 2024, our methodology involves data preparation, detailed analysis, and the application of the XGBoost predictive model, renowned for its speed and resilience to outliers. The iterative training process selects features that enhance the RMSE score over 24 h, highlighting the critical importance of weather-related variables across all time frames. Our primary finding is that these variables have an immediate and sustained impact, with notable transparency in mid-term horizons due to the consistent influence of certain variables on interventions. This indicates their increased relevance for predicting outcomes over the entire duration. This refined understanding of the models linked to incident occurrence provides a practical approach for anticipating resource management, enhancing firefighters’ response times, and saving lives by reducing intervention failures during major incidents.