Coastal regions play a pivotal role in a nation's economic development, driving population migration towards growing coastal hubs. However, human interventions in these ecosystems increase coastal vulnerability. The Surat city faces a high flood risk due to the combined impact of tidal surges from the Arabian Sea and the floodwaters discharge from the Tapi River. This study evaluates the integrated coastal vulnerability of a 52 km estuarine stretch located close to Surat city by considering both physical (9) and socio-economic (5) indicators. Weights for the indicators are determined using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), which incorporates expert judgment. Further, spatial variation of the calculated vulnerability is determined using Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) approach. In terms of physical parameters, landform geomorphology, coastal slope, elevation, and shoreline change rate (SLR) are weighed more important, while port-activity and population density are ranked to be most important among socio-economic indicators. Through SLR analysis, using Liner Regression Rate (LRR) a significant amount of up to 88.84% erosion and 11.16% deposition occurred during a span of 30 years, i.e., from 1990 to 2020. The average rate of erosion was found to be −13.95 m/yr, whereas the average rate of accretion is 24.39 m/yr. High erosion rates are observed along most of the coastal stretch considered, whereas deposition is predominant at the confluence of Tapi river and the Arabian Sea. The integrated vulnerability reveals that approximately 68% of the area falling within 7 km along coastline which includes nearly 35 villages are under very highly vulnerable zones. This work can assist coastal management authorities in implementing essential preventive measures to mitigate risks effectively.

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Assessment of Comprehensive Physical and Socio-economic Vulnerability in an Indian Coastal Floodplain

  • Vineetha Putta,
  • Vineela Nandam,
  • P. L. Patel

摘要

Coastal regions play a pivotal role in a nation's economic development, driving population migration towards growing coastal hubs. However, human interventions in these ecosystems increase coastal vulnerability. The Surat city faces a high flood risk due to the combined impact of tidal surges from the Arabian Sea and the floodwaters discharge from the Tapi River. This study evaluates the integrated coastal vulnerability of a 52 km estuarine stretch located close to Surat city by considering both physical (9) and socio-economic (5) indicators. Weights for the indicators are determined using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), which incorporates expert judgment. Further, spatial variation of the calculated vulnerability is determined using Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) approach. In terms of physical parameters, landform geomorphology, coastal slope, elevation, and shoreline change rate (SLR) are weighed more important, while port-activity and population density are ranked to be most important among socio-economic indicators. Through SLR analysis, using Liner Regression Rate (LRR) a significant amount of up to 88.84% erosion and 11.16% deposition occurred during a span of 30 years, i.e., from 1990 to 2020. The average rate of erosion was found to be −13.95 m/yr, whereas the average rate of accretion is 24.39 m/yr. High erosion rates are observed along most of the coastal stretch considered, whereas deposition is predominant at the confluence of Tapi river and the Arabian Sea. The integrated vulnerability reveals that approximately 68% of the area falling within 7 km along coastline which includes nearly 35 villages are under very highly vulnerable zones. This work can assist coastal management authorities in implementing essential preventive measures to mitigate risks effectively.