Predicting Geostrategic Developments and Conflicts in the High Seas
摘要
The high seas, encompassing nearly half of the Earth's surface, have historically been an unrestricted territory. This freedom is increasingly constrained by economically motivated activities such as offshore mining, as well as environmental concerns, leading to the establishment of maritime protection zones under UN treaties. As these and other maritime developments progress, understanding where they will emerge and what conflicts they may generate becomes increasingly crucial. The evolution of human activities in particular areas of the Earth's surface is influenced by geographical factors. Some of these factors have been combined into a matrix with the aim of using it to predict geostrategic developments on the high seas. The matrix can be applied on different scales and allows the generation of various scenarios and the integration of different related factors. Dry-runs successfully tested the matrix's functionality for two scenarios, leading to predictions of geostrategic developments. The overlay of both scenarios revealed even more information, anticipating territories with potential overlapping stakeholder interests and resulting conflicts. Therefore, it is anticipated that introducing the matrix can help visualize and manage future developments and manage conflicts on the high seas.