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The paper presents some general thoughts on the subject of modeling of socio-economic phenomena and processes, and the problems, related to such modeling. In particular, the subject of reliability and verifiability of models is taken up. The aspects of data and methodology, as well as theory are touched upon. Against this background a straightforward modeling exercise is shown of migrations in Poland at the municipality level. For the data on some 2500 Polish municipalities over 20 years in the twenty-first century basic models are built, founded on the fundamental hypothesis of relation between unemployment rate and migration flows. It is shown that not only the hypothesis gets confirmed, even if with a great variety of divergences, but quite plausible conclusions can be drawn from the results obtained, leading also to deeper analyses.

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Modeling Socio-economic Phenomena: Some Critical Thoughts and a Positive Example

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Jan W. Owsiński,
  • Jarosław Stańczak,
  • Przemysław Śleszyński,
  • Rafał Wiśniewski

摘要

The paper presents some general thoughts on the subject of modeling of socio-economic phenomena and processes, and the problems, related to such modeling. In particular, the subject of reliability and verifiability of models is taken up. The aspects of data and methodology, as well as theory are touched upon. Against this background a straightforward modeling exercise is shown of migrations in Poland at the municipality level. For the data on some 2500 Polish municipalities over 20 years in the twenty-first century basic models are built, founded on the fundamental hypothesis of relation between unemployment rate and migration flows. It is shown that not only the hypothesis gets confirmed, even if with a great variety of divergences, but quite plausible conclusions can be drawn from the results obtained, leading also to deeper analyses.