Fish Exports and Economic Growth Nexus: Evidence from Namibia

The fisheries and aquaculture sector is crucial to Namibia in relation to income generation, trade, food security, and protein provisioning. Considering this paramount importance, the primary objective of this chapter is to investigate the relationship between fish exports and inclusive growth in Namibia, focusing mainly on two secondary objectives using nonlinear autoregressive distribution (NARDL) and vector-error correction (VECM) analysis techniques covering the period 2008Q1–2020Q4. First, on the asymmetric impact of fish exports on inclusive growth, the results from the ARDL show that in both the short run and long run, a decrease in fish export revenue poses greater and nuanced welfare costs to Namibians than the benefits brought about by a similar magnitude increase in fish exports. Second, on the direction of the causal relationship between fish exports and inclusive growth, the evidence from VECM confirms the presence of bidirectional causality between fish exports and growth in the long run and unidirectional causality from both positive and negative fish export shocks to economic growth in the short run. The policy implication from this chapter is for relevant authorities to promote measures that foster and safeguard fish production through sustainable harvesting by adherence to fishing quotas and supporting small-scale inland fish producers. This avoids recurrence of the tragedy-of-the-commons problem and dangers to the fisheries and aquaculture sector posed by events like the “fishrot” scandal.