Research on the Effectiveness Evaluation System of Lunar-Based Near-Earth Asteroid Monitoring Systems

The threat of near-Earth asteroid (NEA) impacts is a major catastrophic risk facing humanity, and the construction of an efficient monitoring system is a key prerequisite for implementing planetary defense. Currently, the world relies on ground-based optical telescopes and radar systems for NEA monitoring. However, traditional ground-based monitoring systems are severely restricted by the Sun-Earth geometric relationship, with large observation blind spots in the direction of the Sun. Asteroids approaching Earth from the solar background direction are difficult to detect in a timely manner, making it impossible to achieve all-weather, full-coverage threat early warning. Leveraging the unique spatial location and environmental advantages of the Moon, the lunar-based monitoring system can effectively compensate for the shortcomings of ground-based systems and significantly improve the detection probability and monitoring efficiency of NEAs. Addressing the key scientific issue of evaluating the effectiveness of the lunar-based monitoring system, this study analyzes the core factors influencing the effectiveness of the lunar-based NEA monitoring system based on research on the layout scheme of lunar-based NEA monitoring and initially establishes an effectiveness evaluation index system for the lunar-based NEA monitoring system. The research results not only provide a solid theoretical basis and technical support for the scheme design optimization, parameter configuration selection, and performance prediction evaluation of the lunar-based monitoring system but also lay a methodological foundation for the subsequent engineering implementation and effect evaluation of lunar-based monitoring missions. This is of great theoretical value and engineering application prospects for the future construction of an integrated space-Earth-Moon asteroid monitoring and early warning system and the improvement of humanity’s planetary defense capabilities.