Empirical Bias in Theoretical Frameworks: Validation of Distance and Load Assumptions in ICAO Aviation Carbon Emissions Calculation Methodologies

This study investigates the International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO) methodology for calculating aviation carbon emissions, focusing on empirical validation and bias analysis of its assumptions regarding flight distance and payload. Using full-sample operational data from January 1, 2023, to July 31, 2024, the research examines routes between Kunming airport (KMG) and Mangshi airport (LUM), Shuangliu airport (CTU), Xianyang airport (XIY), and Daxing airport (PKX), analyzing the impact of directional, seasonal, and airline-specific operational factors on load factors, baggage weights, and cargo strategies. Findings reveal that ICAO’s current method—relying on a fixed assumption of 100kg per passenger, overlooking return-trip load imbalances, and ignoring variations in airline cargo strategies—introduces systematic biases in emission attribution. The study concludes that the static, average-based framework lacks scientific robustness under dynamic operational conditions, and calls for methodological adjustments to address multi-dimensional uncertainties.