Multidimensional Identification and Complex System Transmission Pathway Analysis of Scale-up Risks for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) in China

Driven by carbon neutrality goals of the aviation industry, the large-scale application of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) confronts multidimensional systemic risks. However, the interaction mechanisms and transmission paths of its non-technical risks remain inadequately explored. This study employs the PESTEL model to identify and integrate risks into three systemic categories: institutional, supply-side, and demand-side. By applying complex systems theory, it constructs causal loop diagrams to unveil three core feedback mechanisms governing risk interactions. The research further identifies critical leverage points and proposes cross-domain intervention strategies to disrupt negative feedback loops. From the perspective of China’s SAF scale development, this paper provides a systematic framework for risk management in the aviation industry’s low-carbon transformation, offering theoretical and practical guidance for optimizing risk mitigation pathways.