Research on the Quantification and Trend of the Demand for Power Grid Climbing Capacity Considering the Penetration Rate and Proportion of Wind and Solar Energy

To address the issues caused by a single evaluation index for ramping demand assessment in new power systems and the unclear evolution patterns of new energy penetration rates, this paper constructs a comprehensive assessment index system. Based on the data from a certain province’s power grid in 2023, different scenarios of new energy penetration rates and the proportions of wind and solar energy are analyzed. The results indicate that an increase in new energy penetration significantly raises the system’s ramping demand, with a greater impact on downward ramping; high proportions of photovoltaics lead to high ramping demand, while an increase in wind power can reduce ramping demand, especially in terms of a significant reduction in upward ramping demand. This research provides a reference for evaluating downward ramping demand and flexible resource allocation under high proportions of new energy integration.