Identifying Weak Links in Coal Transportation Networks Under Disruptions: A Multi‑agent Simulation Study

Coal transportation networks operate reliably under routine conditions but are vulnerable to shocks. Static planning approaches struggle to capture cascading effects and to locate weak links with precision. We introduce a multi‑agent simulation framework—comprising mines, loading stations, ports, trains, vessels, and power plants—and inject typical disruptions to diagnose vulnerability. Calibrated on a representative network, the model quantifies the impacts of persistent hub‑capacity degradation, short‑term line outages, concentration risk in supply, and demand surges. Results indicate that sustained handling‑capacity loss at core hubs dominates system‑level risk, whereas isolated line outages are comparatively buffered; reliance on single sources is a second major driver of fragility.