Orbital Characterization of Hyperbolic Bolides for Interstellar Candidate Identification

The recent discoveries of interstellar objects ʻOumuamua and 2I/Borisov have highlighted the need for systematic identification of smaller interstellar fragments entering Earth’s atmosphere. We present a comprehensive multi-parameter orbital analysis framework for identifying interstellar meteor candidates from NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball database. Our approach integrates Väisälä orbit determination, Monte Carlo uncertainty quantification, gravitational focusing corrections, and Tisserand parameter analysis to discriminate between interstellar and solar system origins. Analysis of 1022 CNEOS fireballs (2014–2023) identified four candidates with excess velocities V∞ > 0, representing 0.4% of the database. Synthetic validation using 20,000 test trajectories achieved 97.0% detection efficiency with 0.69% false positive rate. Bayesian analysis estimates an interstellar meteor flux of 1.60 × 10⁻⁷ events per km2 annually, though large uncertainties (95% CI: 0.51–19.93) reflect dataset limitations. While definitive identification requires additional observational confirmation, this framework provides a foundation for systematic interstellar meteor surveys and screening of existing databases.