Analysis of Characteristics and Prevention Strategies of Aviation Safety Incidents in Xinjiang Region

Dispersed airports and underdeveloped aviation infrastructure pose elevated safety risks due to complex terrain and climate in Xinjiang. Using 2015–2024 Civil Aviation Safety Information System data, this study applied descriptive statistics, comparative analysis, correlation assessment, and ARIMA time-series modeling to analyze aviation safety incidents. Findings show that incident distribution varies by region and operation type, while human and non-human factors have no significant difference. General aviation operations and high-altitude phases significantly influence incident severity. Incidents exhibit non-stationary fluctuations, with ARIMA predicting a decline over three years. Based on these results, targeted strategies including precision interventions, critical area prioritization, dynamic adaptation, and continuous monitoring are proposed, offering practical guidance for Xinjiang’s aviation safety management and a replicable model for other regions.