A Coal Cargo Flow Distribution Simulation Model Under Different Weather Scenarios

In response to the challenges of transportation efficiency, cost and reliability faced by the continuous growth of coal transportation demand from Xinjiang, this paper studies the optimization problem of coal transportation routes in multiple scenarios. By constructing a multimodal transport cargo flow allocation model aimed at minimizing the total expected cost, transportation costs, transshipment expenses and waiting time costs are comprehensively considered, and the impact of weather uncertainty on transportation time, waiting time and capacity supply is introduced. Based on the typical scenario of “Xinjiang coal leaving the region”, Python programming is used to simulate the cargo flow distribution schemes under three situations: sunny days, rain and snow, and extreme weather. The research results show that the optimized route scheme of the Haoji Railway has a unit transportation cost of approximately 669.25 yuan per ton, which is 21.7% lower than the original route. It can handle over 70% of the transportation volume and still demonstrates strong stability and cost advantages under adverse weather conditions. This model and method provide decision-making references for improving the operational efficiency of coal transportation resources and supporting the implementation of the “Xinjiang Coal Out of the Region” strategy.