Monte Carlo–Based Electric Vehicle Charging Load Prediction

With the development of energy and engineering manufacturing technology, the penetration rate of electric vehicles (EVs) is increasing. Their large-scale access to the power grid poses new challenges to the safe and stable operation of the power system. In order to effectively alleviate the pressure of this load impact, it is necessary to construct an electric vehicle charging load model. Firstly, the Bass model is used to predict electric car ownership, and the linear regression model is used to estimate electric taxi and bus ownership. On this basis, this paper considers the charging mode, starting charging time and daily mileage of electric vehicles to calculate charging load demand. This provides a foundation for studying the charging load in the medium and long term.