Climate Change and Economic Growth in Southeast Asia Countries: A Panel ARDL Study

This study examines the impact of climate change on economic growth in Southeast Asian countries using a panel ARDL approach. Drawing on annual data from 11 ASEAN nations over the period 2000–2022, the research investigates both short-run and long-run effects of key climate variables, including sea-level rise, land cover, temperature, CO₂ emissions, and rainfall, on GDP growth. The findings reveal that while some climate factors may generate short-term adaptive responses that temporarily boost economic activity, their long-run effects are predominantly negative. In particular, sustained increases in sea-level rise and persistent high temperatures are found to significantly constrain economic growth, underscoring the vulnerability of ASEAN economies to prolonged climate stress. These results highlight the urgent need for long-term policy interventions, such as investments in coastal defenses, sustainable land management, and the transition to renewable energy sources, to enhance economic resilience. Overall, this study contributes to the growing body of literature linking climate change to economic performance and offers valuable policy insights for mitigating the adverse effects of climate change in Southeast Asia.