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Epilogue: Shrinking Japan and Foreign Residents with Special Attention to Sannindo

  • Fumie Kumagai

摘要

Japan’s demographic trajectory is increasingly shaped by the dual forces of sustained fertility decline and accelerated population aging. As of 2025, the Japanese population registered its largest annual decrease since the inception of the Basic Resident Register, while the foreign resident population expanded at a record pace. Projections by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) estimate a total population of 87 million by 2070, with foreign nationals comprising approximately 10 percent. This demographic recalibration necessitates a reconfiguration of national and regional policy frameworks, particularly in depopulating areas such as the Sannindo region—northern Kyoto, Tottori, and Shimane—where foreign residents have become indispensable to sustaining primary industries and caregiving infrastructures. The chapter synthesizes historical and contemporary data to illuminate the evolving role of foreign nationals, whose presence has been facilitated by immigration mechanisms such as the Technical Intern Training Program and the Specified Skilled Worker system. Legislative reforms, including the 2019 revision of the Immigration and Refugee Recognition Act and the 2023 expert panel proposals, signal a transition from short-term labor mobilization to structured pathways for long-term settlement and family reunification. These developments reflect a broader policy shift toward demographic sustainability through inclusive integration. Regional disparities in population decline and foreign resident distribution underscore the urgency of municipal innovation, particularly in rural and coastal areas. While metropolitan centers remain dominant, municipalities along the Sannindo must recognize their potential to foster resilient, multicultural communities. Foreign residents are no longer peripheral actors; they constitute an essential foundation for Japan’s demographic and regional revitalization.