A Multi-Modal Capacity Matching Model for Islands Considering Capacity Constraints

This study addresses dual challenges: managing heterogeneous travel demands (short-distance vs. medium-long distance tourists) and infrastructure bottlenecks (e.g., Jinsha Avenue) during peak seasons. It proposes an integrated, cross-regional approach to optimize transportation resource allocation on Zhujiajian Island using a bilevel framework. The model minimizes temporal-spatial supply-demand mismatches via a generalized cost function covering monetary, time, comfort, and reliability costs. The upper level optimizes operator costs and passenger waiting times by scheduling departure frequencies, constrained by parameters like maximum intervals, load thresholds, and roadway saturation. The lower level employs a nested Logit-based stochastic user equilibrium model for real-time utility maximization, dynamically reallocating demand across modes. The framework achieves three-dimensional coordination: synchronizing service with demand fluctuations, balancing passenger flows spatially, and ensuring economic efficiency in resource deployment. This approach enhances multimodal transport integration and adaptability during peak periods.