The Impact of Ultra Low Emission Zone on Gasoline Vehicle Travelers’ Travel Modes Shift in Beijing

To address the severe pollution caused by the rapid development of motor vehicles, various high-emission gasoline vehicle restriction policies have been implemented globally, encouraging residents to shift towards low-emission travel modes. This study aims to explore how the potential implementation of an Ultra-Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) policy in Beijing might influence residents’ travel mode shifts. An online survey was conducted, investigating residents’ travel mode choices under 18 hypothetical ULEZ policy scenarios. A mixed logit (ML) model was established to explore the influencing factors on gasoline vehicle travelers, encompassing case-specific and alternative-specific variables. The results indicate that the implementation of the ULEZ is less supported by gasoline vehicle travelers than others sample, however, it still significantly influences their mode shift behavior, with an average of 75.7% of travelers would change their modes, but only 22% would replace their gasoline vehicles. Within the hypothetical scenarios, the respondents’ location relationship to the ULEZ and the cost of purchasing access rights have a significant impact on their mode shift. Furthermore, considering the significant influence of general attitudes among gasoline vehicle travelers, effectively leveraging environmental awareness during policy implementation can better guide them shift towards low-emission mode.