Population and Economy

This chapter explores the intricate relationship between population dynamics and economic development in China, tracing its evolution through three stages: initial criticism of Malthusian and Ma Yinchu’s population theories (1950s–1960s), recognition of family planning’s necessity (1970s–1980s), and recent shifts toward relaxing birth policies amid low fertility and aging concerns (2000s onward). It emphasizes the trade-offs between population size and quality, employment pressures, and the demographic dividend’s role in fueling China’s economic miracle, contributing 25–27% to economic growth from 1980–2010. The chapter analyzes how demographic transitions affect savings, potential growth rates (projected to decline to 3–4% by 2050), international trade, technological progress, housing demand, and financial risks. It advocates transitioning from demographic to reform dividends to sustain growth.