Forecasting the Characteristics of Electric Vehicle Charging Demand from 2023 to 2030 in China

To reduce the vehicle energy consumption and vehicle emissions, electric vehicles have been promoted with great efforts in China. Previous studies always focused on the adoption of electric vehicles and the layout planning of charging facilities in a certain area lack of long-term analysis of electric vehicle charging demand development in China. In this study, a research framework is proposed to forecast the characteristics of electric vehicle charging demand from 2023 to 2030 in China. Road vehicles are classified into nine types according to the electric vehicle promotion policies. Characteristics of vehicle energy consumption are calculated in 2021 based on the collected and estimated dataset. Then electric vehicle ownership is estimated according to the electric vehicle conversion rate of different vehicle types. Electric vehicle charging capacity and charging facility are finally forecasted with consideration of the difference between trickle charge and fast charge. Results show that the total number of electric vehicles is near to 77 million in 2030, and the charging capacity of electric vehicle is about 400 billion kWh. As for the charging facility, the total number of charging infrastructures is about 65 million, with the number of fast charging facility around 15 million. The Findings of this research is helpful to understand the promotion path of different vehicle types and the scale of electric vehicle development with important practical significance in China.