Enhancing coastal vulnerability assessment: A hybrid approach for evaluating future cyclonic scenarios
摘要
Coastal regions are exposed to a higher risk from extreme events like cyclones, driven by climate change. Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of these cyclones, detrimentally impacting coastal populations and infrastructure through flood damage and shoreline loss. As cyclone trends evolve due to climate change, an extensive approach to coastal vulnerability assessment is imperative for effective risk mitigation and ecosystem protection. This study proposes a coastal vulnerability model incorporating hydrodynamic and vulnerability models for evaluating the Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI). This chapter also emphasizes the use of future scenarios of extreme events to enhance the accuracy in the prediction of vulnerability. Therefore, this chapter utilizes the storm surge simulations derived from a Far-Future (2065–2085) event based on the RCP 6.0 scenario and a synthetic cyclone with a 100-year return period and of a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm for a comprehensive vulnerability assessment. The proposed CVI model is illustrated using the Ennore region (13.21° N and 80.32° E) along the coast of Tamil Nadu, India. Incorporating the spatial distribution of storm surges derived from the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HECRAS) hydrodynamic model enhances the accuracy of the CVI maps. These maps can assist stakeholders and policymakers in recommending suitable adaptation strategies for highly affected vulnerable regions.